Iran Is Very Close to the Nuclear Threshold

Philippians 3:7-8
(7) But what things were gain to me, these I have counted loss for Christ. (8) Yet indeed I also count all things loss for the excellence of the knowledge of Christ Jesus my Lord, for whom I have suffered the loss of all things, and count them as rubbish, that I may gain Christ 
New King James Version   Change your email Bible version

If we desire to walk as Christ walked, we have to strive with all our being to meet the requirements of the sacrifices that will arise in our lives. Christ personified the intent of the biblical sacrifices; they were an integral part of His life.

Did Paul follow Christ's example when sacrifice was required to confirm his devotion to Him? He says of himself that he was "a Hebrew of the Hebrews" (Philippians 3:5), a man of proper pedigree. He was instructed at the feet of Gamaliel (Acts 22:3), so he was likely a rabbi, an honorable and exalted position he had to jettison. He may have been a member of the Sanhedrin, and thus a man of eminent authority and respect. If so, he would have had to be married, yet Scripture makes no mention of a wife. Did she leave him or die? Perhaps he had to give her up too. Apparently, he left no children. II Corinthians 11:22-33 gives an overview of the many sacrifices he made to serve the church as an apostle.

Our Savior gave more of this kind of sacrifice than anybody did. He gave up many of His prerogatives as God to experience life as a human. Abraham had to leave his home country and wander as a nomad for the rest of his life. Moses had to give up any dreams he may have had to sit on the throne of Egypt. What have we had to sacrifice—anything comparable to what these men gave up? Have we sacrificed houses, lands, families, or jobs? Paul says he lost everything! Philippians 3:8 records, "Yet indeed I also count all things loss for the excellence of the knowledge of Christ Jesus my Lord, for whom I have suffered the loss of all things, and count them as rubbish, that I may gain Christ."

Many of us are similar to the rich young ruler of Matthew 19, who asks Jesus what he needs to do to be saved. When Jesus tells him to sell all he has and give to the poor, he cannot do it. We see that wealth was a major idol in his life, his high tower that he looked to for security. In like manner, we also consider wealth to provide security, and we try hard to keep it from slipping away. If this were not so, idolatry would not be such a major problem, but it is the most common and serious of all spiritual sins. It comes between God and us, greatly hindering us in conforming to His image.

When counseling a person for baptism, a minister almost invariably takes the candidate through Jesus' teaching in Luke 14:26-30:

If anyone comes to Me and does not hate his father and mother, wife and children, brothers and sisters, yes, and his own life also, he cannot be My disciple. And whoever does not bear his cross and come after Me cannot be My disciple. For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it—lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish it, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, "This man began to build and was not able to finish."

This discourse lists many possibilities that may require sacrifice, but none is so common or costly as "yes, and his own life also." Though it may be a heavy condition and require deep soul-searching, we may give up an inheritance, job, title, or status with little regret. One can regroup from these losses and life goes on, but a person can never get away from himself. A person takes human nature and its enmity against God with him everywhere he goes. At all times, he faces the challenges and demands of bad attitudes, tempers, weak resolve, and weak character engrained in the past.

— John W. Ritenbaugh

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-breaks-through-enriched-uranium-limit-set-in-nuclear-deal-state-media/?utm_source=iran-breaks-through-enriched-uranium-limit-set-in-nuclear-deal-state-media&utm_medium=desktop-browser&utm_campaign=desktop-notifications
Iran breaks through enriched uranium limit set in nuclear deal – state media
Fars news agency cites ‘informed source’ as saying stock of 3.67% enriched uranium was measured and found to be over 300-kg maximum
By TOI STAFF and AGENCIES
Today, 1:47 pm  0
0
shares
Iran's uranium conversion facility near Isfahan, which reprocesses uranium ore concentrate into uranium hexafluoride gas, which is then taken to Natanz and fed into the centrifuges for enrichment, March 30, 2005.  (AP/Vahid Salemi)
Iran's uranium conversion facility near Isfahan, which reprocesses uranium ore concentrate into uranium hexafluoride gas, which is then taken to Natanz and fed into the centrifuges for enrichment, March 30, 2005. (AP/Vahid Salemi)
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported Monday that the country’s stockpile of 3.67 percent enriched uranium has now passed the 300-kilogram limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal.

Citing what it said was an “informed source,” Fars reported that the stockpile was measured and found to have exceeded the agreed limit laid out in the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

On June 17, a spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said Iran would breach the limit within 10 days.

Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories FREE SIGN UP
Speaking at the Arak heavy water production facility, Behrouz Kamalvandi acknowledged that the country had already quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium and said Tehran would increase uranium enrichment levels “based on the country’s needs.”

That increase, he said, could be to any level, from 3.67%, which is the current limit set by the nuclear deal.

Iran needs 5% enrichment for its nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr and 20% enrichment for a Tehran research reactor, the spokesman said.

When uranium is mined, it typically has about 140 atoms of the unwanted U-238 isotope for every atom of U-235. Refining it to a purity of 3.67%, the level now allowed by the nuclear deal, means removing 114 unwanted atoms of U-238 for every atom of U-235.

Boosting its purity to 20% would mean removing 22 more unwanted isotopes per atom of U-235, while going from there to 90% purity means removing just four more per atom of U-235, Kamalvandi noted at the time. Ninety percent is considered weapons-grade material.

That means going from 20% to 90% is a relatively quick process, something that worries nuclear nonproliferation experts.

The move was part of Iran’s recent 60-day ultimatum to the European Union for renegotiating the pact after the US withdrawal.

The Trump administration pulled America out of the deal in May 2018, saying it did not sufficiently rein in Iran’s nuclear program and did nothing to stop it from developing missiles or destabilizing the Middle East. The Europeans insist that the pact is an important pillar of regional and global security and was never meant to address those other issues.

In May Iran formally dropped the limitations on uranium enrichment and the production of heavy water that were laid down in the deal, citing its ultimatum to the EU, which it accuses of failing to protect Iran against the renewed US sanctions.

Under the terms of the nuclear deal, Iran can keep a stockpile of no more than 300 kilograms (660 pounds) of low-enriched uranium. That’s compared to the 10,000 kilograms (22,046 pounds) of higher-enriched uranium it once had. It is also capped at storing 300 tons of heavy water, which it sells to Oman for use as a coolant in nuclear reactors.

Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’
Jun 23, 2019 05:57 pm
Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’
OPINION (Express) – Iran could retaliate against Washington in a “multitude” of ways if the US decided to launch an attack, an expert said after Tehran warned the region will be “set on fire” if America strikes against it. Analysts are putting Iran’s military strength under the microscope to understand whether Tehran could really launch lightning-quick strikes against the US. And many are ready to dismiss the widespread belief Iran only possesses outdated gear.

Continue reading Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’ at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/06/iran-has-multitude-of-ways-of-striking-vows-to-set-area-on-fire/

Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’
Jun 23, 2019 05:57 pm
Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’
OPINION (Express) – Iran could retaliate against Washington in a “multitude” of ways if the US decided to launch an attack, an expert said after Tehran warned the region will be “set on fire” if America strikes against it. Analysts are putting Iran’s military strength under the microscope to understand whether Tehran could really launch lightning-quick strikes against the US. And many are ready to dismiss the widespread belief Iran only possesses outdated gear.

Continue reading Iran has ‘multitude of ways’ of striking, Vows to ‘set area on fire’ at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/06/iran-has-multitude-of-ways-of-striking-vows-to-set-area-on-fire/


Trump warns Iran of ’obliteration like you’ve never seen before’
Jun 23, 2019 05:15 pm
Trump warns Iran of ’obliteration like you’ve never seen before’
(Politico) – President Donald Trump warned the United States may launch a devastating military attack on Iran unless it comes to the negotiating table and drops its bid to develop nuclear weapons. “I’m not looking for war, and if there is, it’ll be obliteration like you’ve never seen before. But I’m not looking to do that. But you can’t have a nuclear weapon. You want to talk? Good. Otherwise, you can have a bad economy for the next three years,” Trump said during an interview with NBC’s “Meet The Press” airing Sunday.

Continue reading Trump warns Iran of ’obliteration like you’ve never seen before’ at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/06/trump-warns-iran-of-obliteration-like-youve-never-seen-before/


US struck Iranian military computers this week
Jun 23, 2019 04:58 pm
US struck Iranian military computers this week
(AP) — U.S. military cyber forces launched a strike against Iranian military computer systems on Thursday as President Donald Trump backed away from plans for a more conventional military strike in response to Iran’s downing of a U.S. surveillance drone, U.S. officials said Saturday. Two officials told The Associated Press that the strikes were conducted with approval from Trump. A third official confirmed the broad outlines of the strike.

All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the operation.

Continue reading US struck Iranian military computers this week at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/06/us-struck-iranian-military-computers-this-week/

Iran Is Very Close to the Nuclear Threshold
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek June 24, 2019
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-close-nuclear-threshold/
Anti-aircraft guns guarding Natanz Nuclear Facility, Isfahan Province, Iran, image via Wikipedia

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,207, June 24, 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran is threatening to resume its uranium enrichment effort to the point that it will be able to produce a nuclear bomb. According to Olli Heinonen, who served until 2010 as IAEA deputy director general, Iran will be in a position to acquire nuclear weapons within six to eight months.

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano confirmed on June 10 that Iran is realizing its threat to increase its rate of uranium enrichment, in direct defiance of the terms of the nuclear agreement of 2015 (JCPOA).

On May 7, Tehran threatened that if no solution was found to the problem of US sanctions, it would ignore the restrictions on uranium enrichment placed on it by the nuclear agreement and enrich up to 20%. Two weeks later, on May 21, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said the uranium enrichment capability at the Natanz plant had increased fourfold. As a result, Iran may soon exceed the limitation on the amount of uranium it is allowed to enrich under the JCPOA.

Former IAEA deputy director general Olli Heinonen recently stated, during a visit to Israel, that he believes Iran will be in a position to acquire nuclear weapons within six to eight months. He later clarified his remarks, explaining that he was referring to the time needed to enrich uranium in the quantity and quality required to produce a nuclear bomb.

Heinonen served as the IAEA’s deputy director general and was head of its inspection department in the last decade. He was considered a hawk on the matter of Iran’s nuclear program, in contrast to the feeble position toward Tehran taken by the previous IAEA DG, the Egyptian Muhammad al-Baradei.

Heinonen’s conclusion about Iran’s proximity to the nuclear weapons threshold apparently stems from an assessment of its capabilities in two areas: first, its uranium enrichment capacity today versus its capabilities before the nuclear deal was signed on July 14, 2015; and second, the progress it has made since 2003 in the development of nuclear explosive devices in the AMAD program. That program was intended to produce five 10-kiloton nuclear bombs (the size of the Hiroshima bomb in WWII) which could then be fitted onto the Shahab-3 ballistic missile warhead. This program was revealed when the Iranian nuclear archive was smuggled out by Israel.

After 2003, the nuclear program underwent various organizational changes in order to disguise its characteristics. It has operated since 2011 within the framework of the SPND organization.

According to the IAEA’s reports on Iran from 2013-14, before the nuclear deal was signed, the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz contained the following:

15,420 centrifuges from Iran’s first IR1 design, which enriched natural uranium to about 3.5% (nuclear fuel of power reactor grade)
328 IR1 centrifuges enriching uranium from 3.5% to 20% (nuclear fuel of research reactor grade)
1,008 more advanced centrifuges of the IR2m design (which apparently has twice as much enrichment capacity as the IR1 design). These centrifuges have not yet been activated
In addition, 2,710 IR1 centrifuges were installed at the Fordow enrichment facility, of which 696 were activated prior to the nuclear deal. They also enriched uranium from 3.5% to 20%.

It is reasonable to assume that if Iran breaks the nuclear agreement, it will – as soon as possible – restart all the centrifuges installed at Natanz and Fordow, as well as the advanced IR6 and IR8 models centrifuges that were developed in recent years. (According to Iranian experts, the enrichment capacity of IR8 is 20 times greater than that of IR1.) Based on data published by the IAEA, it can be roughly estimated that if Iran breaks the nuclear deal, it will be able to enrich uranium to about 20% at the rate of about 450 kilograms per year. It would then enrich the 20% uranium to 90% (the level of enrichment required to produce a nuclear weapon core) in the quantity of 200 to 250 kilograms – sufficient to produce more than 10 nuclear bombs a year.

Based on the assumption that the time needed for Iran to restart a full-scale uranium enrichment project is three to four months, and adding a month or two for the production of enriched uranium cores in the form of hollow hemispheres, it can be estimated that within half a year, Iran may have at least enough fissile material for one core of a nuclear weapon, and perhaps even more.

The IAEA has tried to monitor Iran’s facilities associated with the production or use of nuclear materials, in accordance with the NPT. However, it has not been able to uncover Iran’s secret activities in the various areas of development of a nuclear explosive device and installation of a ballistic missile. Most of the information gathered by the IAEA in these areas was received from Western intelligence services.

The most significant breakthrough in exposing the Iranian nuclear program was Israel’s Iranian archive operation. Documents in that archive indicate that as long ago as 2003 and 2004, Iran made great progress in its nuclear effort, far beyond what the Western intelligence services and the IAEA estimated at the time. Had the information in the archive been exposed before the signing of the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2015, a better agreement would have been signed.

The Iranian nuclear archive operation and a comprehensive description of its contents were revealed by PM Benjamin Netanyahu on April 30, 2018. From October 2018 through May 21, 2019, the Washington Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), headed by David Albright, presented a series of highly detailed reports on the contents of the archive, including information about secret facilities that had not yet been exposed. In addition to Albright and others, Heinonen was also involved in these revelations.

Key elements of the nuclear program were conducted at the Parchin military site, about 30 kilometers north of Tehran. The IAEA was informed in 2004 of the possibility that the site was conducting activities related to the development of nuclear weapons, and asked Iran to allow its inspectors to patrol it. At first, Iran evaded the request by claiming that it wanted to maintain military field security, as Parchin was a military base. However, in January 2005, it granted the inspectors partial access to a few buildings on the site.

The inspectors did not find any evidence of suspicious activity at Parchin. On their second visit (November 2005), which also involved only a small part of the site, they took soil samples. The IAEA’s subsequent testing of those samples did not substantiate suspicions of nuclear activity at Parchin.

But in 2011, the IAEA received new reports that Parchin was testing explosives related to the development of nuclear weapons.

In May 2012, suspicious activity was detected at Parchin through satellite photographs: the Iranians had destroyed some of the buildings they had forbidden IAEA inspectors to visit in 2005. Not only that: they completely razed the areas surrounding where the buildings had stood.

It was not until September 2015, after the signing of the nuclear deal, that Iran allowed IAEA inspectors to revisit Parchin. Once again, the inspectors took soil samples, and once again, the IAEA’s lab tests revealed nothing.

The samples were reexamined in US labs, however, and found to contain a few uranium particles – proof that Parchin had indeed seen nuclear activity.

View PDF

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, a BESA Center Research Associate, is an expert in the field of nuclear physics and technology who served as a senior analyst in the Israeli intelligence community.