'Notable Change' to Hurricane Dorian's Path Means It Could Hit Georgia, Carolinas As Well

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-05-hurricane-dorian-south-carolina-north-carolina-georgia-virginia


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Hurricane Dorian Battering South Carolina, North Carolina With Flooding Rain, Storm Surge, High Winds, Tornadoes
Sep 5, 2019 | 0  |     
Hurricane Dorian Battering South Carolina, North Carolina With Flooding Rain, Storm Surge, High Winds, Tornadoes
(TWC) – Hurricane Dorian is now unleashing its siege of storm surge flooding, rainfall flooding, high winds and tornadoes as it tracks near the coasts of South Carolina, North Carolina and southeast Virginia through Friday. Dorian’s maximum sustained winds increased to the 115-mph threshold required to regain Category 3 status. Despite that, its damaging impacts are likely to remain the same as it hammers this part of the Southeast coast.
 
Tornado watches are in effect for parts of northern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina through late afternoon and early evening. A number of damaging tornadoes have already happened Thursday morning. One apparent tornado damaged homes near Carolina Shores, North Carolina. Another tornado sighted by law enforcement in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, damaged condos and a trailer park. READ MORE https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-05-hurricane-dorian-south-carolina-north-carolina-georgia-virginia


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https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-05-hurricane-dorian-south-carolina-north-carolina-georgia-virginia
Hurricane Dorian Battering South Carolina, North Carolina With Flooding Rain, Storm Surge, High Winds, Tornadoes
By weather.com meteorologistsless than an hour agoweather.com
00:35
Paul Goodloe in Hurricane Dorian Winds in Charleston, South Carolina
Meteorologist Paul Goodloe looks at the damage already done by Dorian in Charleston, South Carolina.
At a Glance
Dorian is a Category 3 major hurricane once again.
Dorian's rain, wind and storm surge are lashing the Carolinas.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings are posted along the North and South Carolina coasts.
The worst impacts in South Carolina will be felt through Thursday night.
Peak impacts will arrive in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia Thursday into Friday.
A tropical storm watch has now been issued for parts of southeast Massachusetts.
Dorian could strike Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm this weekend.
Hurricane Dorian is now unleashing its siege of storm surge flooding, rainfall flooding, high winds and tornadoes as it tracks near the coasts of South Carolina, North Carolina and southeast Virginia through Friday.


Dorian's maximum sustained winds increased to the 115-mph threshold required to regain Category 3 status. Despite that, its damaging impacts are likely to remain the same as it hammers this part of the Southeast coast.


(INTERACTIVE: Current Radar, Satellite)
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Current Storm Status
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Happening Now
Tornado watches are in effect for parts of northern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina through late afternoon and early evening.


A number of damaging tornadoes have already happened Thursday morning.


One apparent tornado damaged homes near Carolina Shores, North Carolina.


Another tornado sighted by law enforcement in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, damaged condos and a trailer park.


WIS News 10
:heavy_check_mark:
@wis10
A possible tornado has been spotted in N. Myrtle Beach, SC. @NWS will survey the area to confirm.
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A third apparent tornado was sighted just before 5 a.m. EDT on the west side of Little River, South Carolina, accompanied by multiple power flashes.
Another tornado was caught on video northeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.


Isolated tornadoes are common mainly in outer rainbands when tropical storms and hurricanes affect land.
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Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
(Watches and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.)
The combination of rainfall flooding plus flooding from storm surge prompted the closing of over 50 streets in Charleston, South Carolina, Thursday morning, according to local emergency management.
Karen Moran
@SweetLulusBaker
@Live5News Downtown at Huger & Meeting Flooding has started #Dorian #Charleston
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Surge flooding was much lower than forecast during the Wednesday overnight high tide, due to winds still blowing offshore.


However, heavier rainbands were moving toward the South Carolina coast on the northern and western flanks of Dorian. According to the National Weather Service, 3 to 6 inches of rain had already fallen in the Charleston metro area, with more on the way.


Dorian's wind field has grown larger. Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) now extend up to 195 miles from the eye, while hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) extend up to 60 miles from the eye.


Wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph have been clocked in the Charleston metro, and also in Hilton Head Island and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Thursday morning. There have been a number of reports of trees and wires downed in the Charleston metro area, including a tree toppled onto a home in the West Ashley neighborhood of Charleston, injuring one.
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Current Winds
Watches and Warnings
Here is a rundown of the current watches and warnings, according to the National Hurricane Center:


Storm Surge Warning
-From the South Carolina coast to Poquoson, Virginia. This includes the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina, as well as Hampton Roads, Virginia.


-Cities included in the warning are Charleston, South Carolina; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Wilmington, North Carolina; Morehead City, North Carolina; Nags Head, North Carolina; and Hampton Roads, Virginia.


-A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, within the warning area during the next 36 hours. If you live in an area prone to storm surge, be sure to follow the advice of local officials if evacuations are ordered.


Hurricane Warning
-The entire coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.


-The hurricane warnings in South Carolina include Hilton Head Island, Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Wilmington, Morehead City and Nags Head are included in the warning for North Carolina.


-A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) are either already occurring or expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.


Tropical Storm Warning
-North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague, Virginia, including the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.


-This warning also extends to inland locations in eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.


-A tropical storm warning means tropical-storm-force winds are expected within 36 hours.


Tropical Storm Watch
-North of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point and the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island, Maryland.


-This includes Salisbury and Ocean City, Maryland.


-Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, as well as Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.


-A tropical storm watch means tropical-storm-force winds are possible within 48 hours.
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Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Below is the latest on Dorian's timing and what we know about potential forecast impacts right now.


Dorian's Forecast Timing
Thursday: The center of Dorian will pass near the South Carolina coast. A landfall of the center in South Carolina can't be ruled out, which would bring the most damaging winds and storm-surge flooding. However, these impacts will also occur even if Dorian's center does not make a landfall. Heavy rain will also lead to flooding in this area. Coastal flooding, wind and rainfall flooding will worsen and spread from south to north in eastern North Carolina, then into the Virginia Tidewater and the southern Delmarva Peninsula Thursday night.


Friday: Dorian's center will track near, if not make a landfall over, eastern North Carolina, bringing storm-surge flooding, damaging winds and flooding rain as far north as southeastern Virginia. By Friday night, the center of Dorian will move into the Atlantic Ocean, with improving conditions in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.


Saturday: Dorian may track close enough to bring a period of rain and some tropical storm-force winds to southeastern New England before it quickly races toward parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later Saturday into Sunday.


(MORE: Potential Northeast Impacts From Dorian)


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Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of Dorian. It's important to note that impacts – heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding and winds – with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
Dorian's Storm Surge, Wind and Rain Impacts
Dorian will be a dangerous hurricane with significant impacts along the Southeast coast, with a track similar to Matthew in 2016, a $10-billion hurricane disaster.


(MORE: Why Dorian Will Likely Be a Retired Hurricane Name)
Storm Surge
Larger swells and battering waves generated by Dorian will spread northward and increase along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England.


(MAS: Dorian en Español)
The National Hurricane Center says water could reach the following heights above ground level if the peak surge coincides with high tide, which is generally within an hour or so before or after midday and midnight.


-Isle of Palms, South Carolina, to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: 5 to 8 feet


-Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina: 4 to 7 feet


-Cape Lookout, North Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers: 4 to 6 feet
-Duck, North Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads: 2 to 4 feet
-Savannah River (at the border between Georgia and South Carolina) to Isle of Palms, South Carolina: 2 to 4 feet


(MAP: Potential Storm-Surge Inundation)
image
Storm-Surge Forecast
(From the National Hurricane Center.)
The high-tide times corresponding to peak storm surge from Dorian are:


-Charleston, South Carolina: 2:01 p.m. Thursday


-Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: 1:30 p.m. Thursday


-Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina: 1:10 p.m. Thursday and 1:27 a.m. Friday


-Duck, North Carolina: 2:18 p.m. Friday


-Norfolk (Sewell's Point), Virginia: 4:04 p.m. Friday
Tidal flooding in Charleston, South Carolina, at early Thursday afternoon's high tide may exceed that approach that during Hurricane Irma (9.92 feet), but will remain over 2.5 feet below the record storm tide from Hurricane Hugo 30 years ago.
Winds


The worst wind impacts will occur within the hurricane's eyewall, which may scrape parts of the coast of the Carolinas, even if Dorian's center never makes a landfall.
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Probabilities of Damaging Winds
(The contours indicate probabilities of winds greater than 60 mph, which are capable of at least some tree damage. )
Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) will arrive along the coast well ahead of Dorian's closest pass, making preparations difficult.


These winds will be capable of taking down trees and power lines across the Southeast coast, leading to power outages that could last for several days. Ground soaked by rain or storm surge flooding will only increase this threat, allowing trees to topple in winds less strong than would typically be expected to produce damage.
Power outages are most likely along the immediate coast from South Carolina to North Carolina, where winds will be stronger than areas farther inland. However, outages are still possible from central South Carolina to the southern Delmarva Peninsula.


image
Power Outage Forecast
Rainfall Flood Threat
Dorian may produce flooding rain from the Carolinas to extreme southeast New England.
Here are the latest rainfall projections from the National Hurricane Center and NOAA's Weather Prediction Center:


-Coastal South Carolina and North Carolina: 6 to 12 inches, locally up to 15 inches.


-Far southeastern Virginia: 3 to 8 inches.


-Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.
-Extreme southeastern New England: 2 to 4 inches.


Water piling onshore from storm surge won't allow rain-swollen rivers and streams to drain normally for some time before, during and shortly after the closest pass of Dorian's center. This will back up these rivers and streams upstream.
image
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)
Check back to weather.com for the latest on Hurricane Dorian.


Dorian's Historic Landfalls in the Northwest Bahamas
Dorian was upgraded to Category 5 status Sunday morning.
Dorian became the first hurricane of that intensity to make landfall on Grand Bahama Island, after first making a pair of landfalls in the Abacos Islands of the northwestern Bahamas earlier in the day.
Maximum sustained winds topped out at 185 mph on Sunday, putting Dorian in a tie for the second-highest sustained wind speed among all Atlantic hurricanes. It also tied the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
(MORE: The Rarity of Category 5 Hurricanes)
According to Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, while over the northwestern Bahamas, Dorian was also the slowest-moving major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) on record in the Atlantic Basin, crawling at just 1 to 2 mph averaged over a 24-hour period.
Dorian's eyewall finally moved away from Grand Bahama Island on Tuesday afternoon after pummeling the island for 41 straight hours since Sunday night with destructive winds and catastrophic storm-surge flooding. Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, reported a sustained wind of 61 mph with a gust to 82 mph Monday evening.
This intense hurricane lashed the northwestern Bahamas for more than 48 hours since first beginning its siege on the Abacos Islands Sunday morning.
Sustained tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) arrived at Juno Beach, Florida, Monday afternoon and continued along parts of the northeastern Florida coast through Wednesday, with gusts topping 60 mph at times.
In central Florida, Indian River reported a sustained wind of 40 mph with a gust of 51 mph Tuesday evening.
Dorian has had destructive impacts on parts of the Florida coast.
Major beach erosion occurred Tuesday at Flagler Beach, according to the National Weather Service. The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore documented damage to homes on Hutchinson Island due to pounding surf.
Jim Cantore
:heavy_check_mark:
@JimCantore
Homes along MacArthur Boulevard on Hutchinson Island dealing with damage from the ocean waves created by #Dorian.  This occurred last night at high tide.  Next hide tide around 3pm today.  Expect more issues and water rise along waterways in Martin County.


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Major beach erosion was also reported in Vero Beach, according to WKMG-TV. Flooding of streets and parking lots was reported on barrier islands near Fort Pierce at high tide just after midnight early Wednesday.
Water levels were 3 inches over the seawall at Palm Coast Wednesday morning.
The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office shared photos on Twitter showing damage at Kathryn Abbey Hanna Park in Jacksonville Beach on Wednesday afternoon.
Jax Sheriff's Office
:heavy_check_mark:
@JSOPIO
#HurricaneDorian damage at Hanna Park.  #Dorian :cyclone:
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Wind gusts in rainbands on Wednesday morning reached 55 mph on Sapelo Island, Georgia, and 49 mph on Isle of Palms, South Carolina. Wednesday afternoon, a wind gust of 52 mph was reported in Jacksonville, Florida. Sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust of 56 mph were measured just south of Charleston, South Carolina, early Wednesday evening.
A 69-mph wind gust was also clocked at New Smyrna Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning.
Dorian was first named back on Aug. 24 while over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The map below shows a history of Dorian's track since then.
image

Hurricane Dorian Track History

‘Complete Devastation… Please Pray for Us’: Dorian Bashes Bahamas with 220 mph Gusts, At Least 5 Dead
Sep 02, 2019 10:55 pm
‘Complete Devastation… Please Pray for Us’: Dorian Bashes Bahamas with 220 mph Gusts, At Least 5 Dead
(CBN) – Hurricane Dorian unleashed massive flooding across the Bahamas on Monday, pummeling the islands with so much wind and water that authorities urged people to find floatation devices and grab hammers to break out of their attics if necessary. At least five deaths were blamed on the storm. “We are in the midst of a historic tragedy,” Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said in announcing the fatalities. He called the devastation “unprecedented and extensive.”The fearsome Category 4 storm slowed almost to a  standstill as it shredded roofs, hurled cars and forced even rescue crews to take shelter until the onslaught passed.

Continue reading ‘Complete Devastation… Please Pray for Us’: Dorian Bashes Bahamas with 220 mph Gusts, At Least 5 Dead at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/09/complete-devastation-please-pray-for-us-dorian-bashes-bahamas-with-220-mph-gusts-at-least-5-dead/



‘Away from Us in Jesus’ Name’: FL Christians Praying Hard, Praising God for Shifting Dorian
Sep 02, 2019 07:10 pm
‘Away from Us in Jesus’ Name’: FL Christians Praying Hard, Praising God for Shifting Dorian
(CBN) – Florida is still facing a serious threat from Hurricane Dorian, but it was directly in the crosshairs of this monster Category 5 storm just a few days ago. That’s when officials and Christians across the state began praying and preparing. And while the danger isn’t over, it has decreased dramatically from what was first predicted. Florida officials are taking no chances as Hurricane Dorian draws closer to their coast.

Continue reading ‘Away from Us in Jesus’ Name’: FL Christians Praying Hard, Praising God for Shifting Dorian at End Time Headlines.
https://endtimeheadlines.org/2019/09/away-from-us-in-jesus-name-fl-christians-praying-hard-praising-god-for-shifting-dorian/

https://www.westernjournal.com/notable-change-hurricane-dorians-path-means-hit-georgia-carolinas/?utm_source=push&utm_medium=westernjournalism&utm_content=2019-08-31&utm_campaign=pushtraffic

'Notable Change' to Hurricane Dorian's Path Means It Could Hit Georgia, Carolinas As Well
By Joe Setyon 
Published August 31, 2019 at 9:31am
The National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning upgraded Hurricane Dorian to a Category 4 storm and noted that it might affect not only Florida but Georgia and both Carolinas as well.

In a tweet, the hurricane center reported a “notable change overnight to the forecast of #Dorian after Tuesday.”

As the attached image shows, the cone that encompasses the storm’s probable path also includes much of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as the bottom portion of North Carolina.

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic
 8/31 8 AM EDT: There's been a notable change overnight to the forecast of #Dorian after Tuesday. It should be stressed that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty
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“It should be stressed that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty,” the NHC said.

In a Saturday morning advisory, the NHC said Dorian has developed into “an extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm.

“Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph,” the advisory reads.
Dorian had been expected to make landfall on Florida’s eastern coast on Tuesday.

But as of Saturday morning, as NBC News reported, Dorian was “on course to potentially miss a direct hit with Florida.”

Instead, Dorian could make landfall Wednesday in the Carolinas, according to ABC News.

Despite the uncertainty, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is emphasizing the importance of being ready for whatever happens.

“As you’re looking at these forecasts, a bump in one direction or the other could have really significant ramifications in terms of impact,” he said at a news conference Saturday morning.

“If it bumps just a little west, then you’re looking at really, really significant impacts,” he added.

RELATED: Environmentalist's Solar Boat Trip Across Atlantic Ends in Plane Trip & Pollution

In a follow-up tweet, meanwhile, the NHC warned of “significant impacts” even if the storm stays offshore.

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic
 · 9h
 8/31 8 AM EDT: There's been a notable change overnight to the forecast of #Dorian after Tuesday. It should be stressed that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty

National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic
Significant impacts could also occur even if the center of #Dorian stays offshore. With the change in the forecast, the risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week.

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“With the change in the forecast, the risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week,” the NHC wrote.

Later Saturday, the NHC issued another update, noting that while “life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds” were still a possibility along Florida’s eastern coast, the latest projections have Dorian slowing down and heading north rather than making a direct hit on Florida.
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic
 The 11 am EDT/AST advisory for Hurricane #Dorian is now available at http://hurricanes.gov : Dorian's Fury Aiming for the Northwestern Bahamas
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic
 Here are the Key Messages for 8/31 11 AM EDT/AST for Hurricane #Dorian.  The next intermediate advisory is at 2 pm, followed by a complete advisory at 5 pm.

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According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, it’s vital that residents in Georgia and the Carolinas be prepared.

“The coastline has expanded so we want to make sure that those residents in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina are definitely starting to make their preparatory actions,” Jeff Byard, associate administrator for FEMA’s Office of Response and Recovery, said Saturday on “Good Morning America.”

“We’ll start putting responses, assets and teams in South Carolina and North Carolina.”

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